Gujing Liquor (000596): Performance exceeded expectations and product structure was upgraded

Gujing Liquor (000596): Performance exceeded expectations and product structure was upgraded

This report reads: 2018 performance is in line with expectations, the province has maintained an upgrade trend, and the product structure has significantly moved up.

Q1 2019 maintains a good momentum, performance exceeds market expectations, long-term goals are conservative, actual progress is higher, expect breakthroughs in national reform.

Investment highlights: Investment advice: Increase 2019-20EPS forecast to 4.

37, 5.

56 yuan (4 the previous time.

2, 5.

08 yuan), new 2021EPS forecast 7 yuan, with reference to comparable companies estimated to give the company 31 times PE, maintain target price of 138 yuan, increase holdings.

The 2018 performance was basically in line with expectations, and the first quarter of 2019 exceeded expectations.

Company revenue in 2018 was 86.

900 million, net profit attributable to mother 16.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 24.

7%, 47.

6%; Q4 single-quarter revenue of 19.

200 million, net profit attributable to mother 4.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 18.

4%, 25.

1%.

Gross profit margin increased by 1 in 2018.

3pct, the sales expense ratio dropped slightly.

3pct, management expenses and R & D 合肥夜网 expense ratio fell by 1 pct, net profit margin rose by 3 pct.

2019Q1 revenue 36.

70,000 yuan, an increase of 43.

3%, net profit attributable to mother 7.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 34.

8%.

Q1 gross margin decreased by 1 per second.

5pct, sales expense ratio rose by 0.

6pct, net interest rate decreased by 1.

4pct.

In 19Q1, the value of goods receipts increased by 42%, and advance receipts were stable and overall benign.

Benefiting from consumption upgrade, the structure continued to move up.

1) It is expected that the ancient 8 will double in 2018, the ancient 5 will increase by 35%, and the gifts will increase by 10%.

The consumption upgrade in Anhui Province is obvious. The price bands above 200 are increasing rapidly. Gifts are accelerated to upgrade to the ancient 5 and the product structure continues to improve.

The rapid growth of more than 20% is still maintained in the province, and steady progress is being made outside the province to lay a solid foundation.

Yellow Crane Tower consolidated income 8.

600 million, an increase of 25%, net profit of 100 million, an increase of 12%, the growth rate of net profit increased, the net interest rate dropped to zero.

3pct to 11.

5% is expected to increase costs due to regional expansion.2) It is expected that Q1 ancient 8 and above products will maintain high-speed growth, ancient 5 will increase by about 40%, double-digit gifts will increase, and the momentum of upgrade is still good.

The target breakthrough was exceeded, and we expect a breakthrough in the national reform.

The initial income and profit increased by 18%, and the conservativeness of the 6% growth target is expected to be substantially exceeded, and we expect more breakthroughs in the national reform.

Core risks: downside risks to high-end wine prices, and the prospect of domestic demand