Seiko Steel Structure (600496): 19-year net profit meets expected EPC conversion effect

Seiko Steel Structure (600496): 19-year net profit meets expected EPC conversion effect
Event: The company released a 19-year performance forecast and gradually returned to its net profit3.8-4.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 109% -131%.3-3.700 million, a year-on-year increase of + 115% -141%; in line with our expectations, the median net profit attributable to mothers is 4.0 billion, slightly higher than our previous expectations (3.900 million). The company released 4Q19 operating data, and in 19 years it gradually undertook a contract value of 140.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of +14.4%, a growth rate of ten years -5.4pcts, of which 4Q19 contracted 28.2 billion, -0.4%, the average growth rate is -75.4. The new single growth rate is slightly biased, the project selection 杭州桑拿 tends to be tighter, and the proportion of large orders increased due to the conversion of EPC: the company ‘s 4Q19 newly signed contract growth rate accelerated and gradually rewritten, dragging the gradual new signing growth rate, we believe that the company ‘sThe quality requirements are becoming stricter, and at the same time, the conversion of traditional traditional steel structure engineering to EPC has been strengthened.Among the newly signed traditional steel structure engineering contracts over 19 years, the new contract value for public buildings is YoY + 143.4% (compared to the total amount of new public contract signed +84.7%), the new contract value of industrial construction +19.3% (compared to the total value of newly signed contracts for industrial construction, +14.1%), the new contract value of commercial construction increased by 10 year-on-year.0% (vs. the overall 杭州夜网论坛 amount of newly signed contracts for commercial buildings is basically the same), and the proportion of large orders for traditional steel structure engineering has increased significantly.In 19 years, the green building integrated subsidiary’s prefabricated construction business undertook 2 orders through the “technology joining” model, corresponding to 100 billion yuan (3 orders in 18 years, the amount was 1.)700 million), the “technology joining” model in 19 years has changed compared with the previous period, the partner selection criteria have been improved, and the management system has been strengthened to lay the foundation for subsequent healthy development. Performance forecast verification and judgment, technology has advantages, EPC conversion enhances competitiveness, and deeply benefits the industry’s high business climate: According to the company’s 19-year median forecast, the 19-year return to net profit growth rate + 120%, continuing the high growth trend since 18Judgment stems from 1) the upward trend of the industry, driving the progress of orders, improving the quality of orders, driving revenue growth, and increasing profit margins; 2) compared to 18 years, steel prices are relatively low and volatility has weakened significantly.The policy promotion of assembled buildings continued to increase, and the “steel structure + residential” pilot showed better growth of the steel structure, judging that the industry boom continued to advance, the company’s technology has advantages, promoting EPC transformation to enhance the company’s competitiveness, and truly benefiting the industry’s high prosperity. Maintain “Overweight” rating: We maintain our previous performance forecast, and net profit attributable to the mother for 19-21 is 3 respectively.9/4.8/5.500 million, a year-on-year increase of 112.1% / 24.3% / 14.5%, corresponding to EPS are 0.21/0.26/0.30 yuan.The latest revision corresponding to the company’s PE in 19-21 is 15x, 12x, 11x, maintaining the “overweight” level. Risk reminder: lower than expected repayment, sharp increase in steel prices, policy risks, weaker-than-expected financing